Churchill Downs Picks Today: Nov. 14, 2026

Churchill Downs picks today — the card at a glance

Saturday, November 14, 2026 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky: #1 Mystic Lake (29.9%) leads the $300,000 Dream Supreme Stakes on the deepest card in the country today — 12 races from 1:00 p.m. Eastern. #1 Mystic Lake is the headline, and the Dream Supreme is the richest race anywhere on today's board. Conditions are fair and cold: Equibase lists 40°F with a north wind, Edge shows sunny at 47°F, and the changes page (updated 9:39 a.m. Eastern) carries a handful of scratches, each flagged below. The percentages below are our Edge V2 model's win probability for each horse — the higher the number, the more likely the model makes that horse to win. Every rating was read this morning from the individual Edge race pages and scratch-checked against Equibase. One more reason to trust the local read: our Edge model called 16 Churchill winners in the seven days through Friday — the full record is in our Churchill Downs results post.

Churchill Downs Race 3 pick: #1 Mystic Lake (29.9%)

Race 3 (1:58 p.m. ET) is the feature: the $300,000 Dream Supreme Stakes over six furlongs on dirt for fillies and mares, and #1 Mystic Lake tops the read at 29.9% — with a value alert attached. The why is a speed figure of 106.0 near the field top, the best figure cited in any featured race today at any track, on a rising line that now sits at 103. At 4/1 on the morning line, the market prices her like a 20% chance; the model makes her nearly 30%, a 19-point edge that is the biggest value signal on the Churchill card. She is a front-runner in a projected pace meltdown — three of the five runners want the lead — so the rail draw matters. The danger is #6 Justinqueso, who jumps to 29.2% at 5/1, making this close to a coin flip at the top, with #4 Echo Sound at 20.2% behind them. One scratch reshaped the race: #2 Haulin Ice is out (stakes scratch), leaving five runners. When the fastest horse in a $300,000 race is also the value play, that is the race the card is built around. For more on the Louisville circuit, see our guide to handicapping Churchill Downs.

Churchill Downs Race 5 pick: #5 Nerazurri (26.2%)

Race 5 (2:57 p.m. ET) is a $150,000 starter allowance over a mile and a sixteenth on turf — the card's second-richest race — and #5 Nerazurri rates 26.2% as a closer built for the projected pace meltdown in front of her. Her why note pairs a speed figure of 102.0 near the field top with that meltdown setup: three of the eight runners are early-speed types, and her figures are rising to a current 107, the highest current figure on the card. The honest catch is the price: at 4/5 she is odds-on, and the deeper read rates her well below the market's implied chance — the model likes her to win, it just does not love the price. Behind her, #1 Smiling Ellie rates 15.8% and #6 Lady Iona 15.5% at 20/1. One scratch: #2 Polka Polenta is out (trainer). Treat Nerazurri as a single in multi-race tickets, not a win bet at odds-on.

Churchill Downs Race 2 pick: #4 Fletch's Rockette (23.3%)

Race 2 (1:29 p.m. ET) is a $120,000 maiden special weight over six furlongs, and it produced a genuine model flip: the first pass made #2 Treat Yourself the top choice, but the deeper read promotes #4 Fletch's Rockette to the top at 23.3%. Her why is a speed figure of 88.0 near the field top on a rising line to a current 91, and at 4/1 she is a fair price for the fastest closer in the race. Treat Yourself settles at 21.4% — still the clear second chance — with #8 Ironclad at 15.4% and the first-time starter #7 Quality Lace at 12.0% behind them. The pace wrinkle: #9 Cheddar projects as the lone speed and could get brave on an uncontested lead. Two scratches thinned the field to seven: #5 Spirit of America (vet — unsound) and #6 Basin Street Blues (trainer) are both out. Flips like this are the point of the second model run — the first look liked the favourite, the deeper look found the faster horse.

A full track is free every day on Edge

Edge now opens one complete track free every day for anyone with a free account — every race on that card, with the same ratings, value alerts and exotic tickets paying members see, and which track is free is a surprise until you sign up. Today's free track could be Churchill Downs itself: check today's free track on Edge before first post, and if you want the whole Churchill Downs card either way, it is all rated on Edge. Edge's headline Pick of the Day today is Belmont Park Race 1, #5 Donegal Luster, at 45% on the model's first-pass read in a three-runner field.

How the full Churchill Downs card works on Edge

Three races are featured here; the other nine are rated horse-by-horse on Edge, with percentages and a plain-English why for every top pick. Start with the free picks page and today's free track, then pull up the complete Churchill card on Edge before the 1:00 p.m. Eastern first post. Today's flagship preview is Woodbine picks today, home of the day's only graded stakes.