Churchill Downs Picks Today: Nov. 13, 2026

Churchill Downs picks today — the card at a glance

Friday, November 13, 2026 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky: #5 Modern (28.3%) headlines an 11-race card from 1:00 p.m. Eastern, and the opener is where the model plants its flag. Conditions are cloudy and cold — 46°F on the Edge board, with Equibase listing cloudy skies, a northwest wind and the temporary turf rail set at 24 feet for Races 4, 7 and 10. There is no graded stakes on the card, but the money is real: a $127,000 allowance on turf in Race 4, a second $127,000 allowance in Race 7, the card's richest race — a $134,000 allowance optional claimer in Race 10 — and a $120,000 maiden special weight in Race 8. Every rating below was read this morning from the individual Edge race pages, and every pick has been scratch-checked against the Equibase changes page, updated at 9:15 a.m. Eastern today. The Edge V2 model rates every horse's win chance as a percentage — our Edge V2 model's win probability — and the higher the number, the more likely the model makes that horse to win.

Churchill Downs Race 1 pick: #5 Modern (28.3%)

The opener (1:00 p.m. ET) is a $25,000 claiming race over six furlongs on dirt for a $48,300 purse, and Edge marks it as the card's Best Bet race. #5 Modern rates 28.3% — the highest figure at Churchill today — on a speed figure of 75.0 near the field top, and at a 9/2 morning line the model also flags Modern as a value play, a full 18 points above the line's implied chance. That gap is the story of the race: the market sees an ordinary claimer, the model sees the clear best horse. The next chances are #4 Mormoneytostart at 18.3%, #3 Booray at 16.9% and #1 Mr Gerson at 10.5%, and the pace map points to a meltdown — four of the ten runners want the early lead — which only helps a horse who can sit and finish. One scratch to note: #6 Mr. Fete is out (PrivVet — illness), which thins the early pace slightly but does not change the pick. When the Best Bet, the value flag and the top figure all land on the same horse in the first race of the day, that is the horse the card is built around.

Churchill Downs Race 6 pick: #5 Tiger's Legacy (20.7%)

Race 6 (3:26 p.m. ET) is a $16,000 claiming race over six furlongs, and it is one of the day's model-versus-market flips: the V2 read moves #5 Tiger's Legacy to the top at 20.7%, ahead of the V1 favourite #9 Lil Muggs at 17.4%. The why is a speed figure of 87.0 near the field top — the best figure cited in any of today's featured Churchill races — paired with a closer's setup in a projected pace meltdown. At a 4/1 morning line, that is a fair price for the fastest horse in a race full of early speed. #2 Mister Positivity at 13.0% rounds out the live chances. Two scratches reshape the back of the field: #3 Mo Work, who rated 16.6%, and #6 War Munny are both out (PrivVet — illness), which removes a mid-pack danger and shortens the list Tiger's Legacy has to beat. Flips like this are exactly what the second model run is for — the first pass liked the favourite, the deeper read found the faster closer.

Churchill Downs Race 4 pick: #11 Defiant Lass (19.5%)

Race 4 (2:28 p.m. ET) is the first of the two $127,000 allowances, a mile on turf, and #11 Defiant Lass tops the read at 19.5% despite the outside draw. The why carries the argument: a speed figure of 93.0 near the field top, and a closer's profile in a race the pace map says could melt down in front of her. She is the 5/2 morning-line favourite, and the model keeps her well clear of #8 Surprise Ending at 11.4%, #1 Temple Goddess at 10.7% and #10 Lady Sybil at 9.4% — an eight-point cushion in a full turf field is a strong opinion. The one scratch in the race, #4 Sweet Heat (Trainer), was not among the rated chances. An outside post in a one-mile turf race costs ground, so the trip matters, but when the highest figure in the race also gets the pace setup, the draw is a price question rather than a pick question. For more on how we read a Louisville turf card, see our guide to handicapping Churchill Downs.

Today's free race on Edge

The day's featured free race on Edge is Race 2 at Penn National tonight (6:14 p.m. ET), Edge's Pick of the Day: #5 Stanford Dropout rates 40.1% — the highest number on the entire 98-race board — in a $16,000 starter optional claimer over six furlongs. The model's why is a speed figure of 73.0 near the field top plus two standout efforts in the horse's last five starts, and the full field checks out against the official Equibase entries: #4 Extrasexymcsteemee (14.5%), #3 Penn Franklin (14.1%) and #6 Miami Kaz (11.1%) are the next chances. The whole race — every horse rated, with the why for the pick — is free to read right now: today's free race on Edge.

How the full Churchill Downs card works on Edge

This post features three of the 11 Churchill races. The other eight — including the $134,000 Race 10, where #9 Noises Off rates 15.3% on a 100.0 figure, and the $120,000 Race 8 maiden special weight — are rated horse-by-horse on Edge, with percentages, the change from the first model run, and a plain-English why for every top pick. One honest note on Race 8: its field is heavy on first-time starters and the race page carries no V2 narrative, so treat that race with more caution than the three featured here. Start with the free picks page, open today's free race, and if you want the whole Churchill card — plus the other 87 races on today's board — the full card is waiting on Edge. First post is 1:00 p.m. Eastern. Today's other track previews: Horseshoe Indianapolis picks today, Laurel Park picks today, Gulfstream Park picks today, Remington Park picks today and Delta Downs picks today.