How we handicap Churchill
Rating Model
Our proprietary model scores every horse entered at Churchill by projected win probability — independent of the morning line.
Pace Scenarios
We map out the pace shape of every race — who's going to the lead, where the pressure comes from, and which runners benefit from the expected tempo.
Surface & Trip Notes
Churchill Downs runs on Dirt and Turf. We track bias patterns and trip notes from prior starts to find hidden form.
Value Ratings
Every pick is benchmarked against the morning line. We only flag plays where our probability meaningfully exceeds the market — real overlays, not chalk.
The Edge — $4.99/mo
Full Churchill card. Win probabilities.
Exotic ticket builds. Every race day.