Churchill Downs Results: Our Edge Record

The past week at Churchill Downs was the strongest sustained run our model has put together at the Louisville oval. Across the five race days from November 7 to November 13, Aces Edge graded 50 races at the track. Its top pick won 16 of them — a 32% win rate — and 27 of the 50 finished in the top three, a 54% in-the-money rate. Following the model's published staking pattern on every one of those races produced a net return of +$176.24, a 101% return on the $175.00 staked.

Those are past results, published race by race on the Churchill Downs results page on Aces Edge, and they come with the usual warning: a good week is a good week, not a promise about the next one. But the shape of the record matters. Every graded race in the window counts. No days were picked out after the fact, no losing cards were quietly dropped, and today's card is excluded until it is final. That is the standard the record has to meet before we write about it.

The record by the numbers

The headline window is the last seven days, but the longer Churchill Downs record tells the same story at a steadier pace. Across all dates on the results page — 445 graded races — the model's top pick has won 127 times, a 29% win rate, with 59% of its picks finishing in the top three and a net return of +$411.77 on the same staking pattern.

The methodology is deliberately plain. The net return assumes a $2 win bet, a $1 exacta and a $0.50 trifecta built around the model's #1 pick in every graded race, at the prices the races actually paid. There is no selective staking and no after-the-fact filtering: if the race was graded, the result is in the record, good or bad. For context, the site's expanded model ran at 21% (10 of 47) over the same seven-day window, which is why the headline record belongs to the core model.

That full-card honesty is the point. A record built on every race can be checked against official results by anyone, and it survives the losing days as well as the winning ones. Churchill's week included both, which is exactly what a real record looks like.

Biggest winners we called

The week's headline prices came from horses the model put on top at working odds, not from short-priced favorites doing what was expected. The biggest win payoffs on Edge #1 picks on the Churchill Downs record page:

• Cartography — $19.16. The biggest price of the week, closing out the November 7 card in Race 11.
• Beach Heist — $16.28. A double-figure winner the model had on top.
• Mr. All In — $14.12. Another double-figure score for the top pick.
• Skynet — $13.72. A double-figure score from a Race 1 top pick.
• Lady Sybil — $13.00. One of the week's cleanest double-figure hits.
• Write Off Jerry — $12.88. The sixth double-figure winner on the list.

Six double-figure winners called on top is the part of the record we would point to first. Strike rate gets the headlines, but finding winners at $12 to $19 is what turns a solid week into a profitable one under level staking.

Two days that did the damage

Saturday, November 7 was the week's biggest day: four winners from 11 races (36%), six of 11 picks in the top three, and a profit of +$104.11 — a +270% return on the $38.50 staked. Cartography's $19.16 in the finale was the exclamation point, but the day was built earlier by stacking up shorter-priced winners and letting the staking pattern compound them.

Friday, November 13 nearly matched it: four winners from 11 (36%), seven of 11 in the top three (64%), and +$93.29 for a +242% return on $38.50 staked. Apexion, Defiant Lass, Queens Ambition and Camp Hale did the winning, and the exacta and trifecta returns around the top picks did the rest.

Between those two bookends, the week never fell apart — and that consistency, rather than one monster day, is what carried the seven-day line into triple-figure ROI. You can replay both cards race by race, with full finishing orders and payoffs, on the Edge results page.

How the model reads Churchill Downs

If you are new to Edge, the one term to know is V2: our Edge V2 model's win probability — the percentage chance the model gives each horse of winning its race. Every other number on the site follows from that. Each field is re-ranked by those percentages, value alerts flag the horses whose percentage sits higher than the market's price implies, and the exotic tickets are built around the top of the re-ranked order.

Churchill in the fall is a good test of that approach. Fields are full, the dirt racing is honest, and shippers arrive from half a dozen circuits, which makes raw form lines hard to compare at a glance. A probability-first read cuts through that: instead of asking which horse has the best story, it asks which horse wins this race most often if it is run a hundred times, and whether the price on offer pays for the times it loses. The past week's record — and the longer 445-race record behind it — is what that process has produced at this track. For a deeper grounding in reading this oval, see our guide to handicapping Churchill Downs, and compare it with how Friday's Churchill card was previewed before it ran.

Churchill races again today

Churchill Downs is back in action today, Saturday, November 14, and today's full card is rated on Aces Edge now — every race ranked, with win probabilities, value alerts and exotic tickets published before the gates open. Whether it extends the record or dents it, it will be graded on the same terms as the last 445: every race counts, and the results go up for anyone to check.

The fastest way in is free. A free Edge account — and the track you get is a surprise until you sign up — now opens one complete track every day, with the same rankings, probabilities, value alerts and tickets paying members see. Start at edge.acesandraces.com/free, and for a no-account taster of today's racing, see our free picks page.

Past results are shown for information only and do not guarantee future performance. Please gamble responsibly.