Belmont Park Picks Today: Nov. 14, 2026

Belmont Park picks today — the card at a glance

Saturday, November 14, 2026 at Belmont Park in Elmont, New York: #1 Hammerhead (27.1%) leads an off-turf Saturday — every turf race has come off, the dirt is muddy, and the switched races run on a fast all-weather surface. #1 Hammerhead is the featured name on a 10-race card from 11:40 a.m. Eastern that still holds two $175,000 stakes: the Awad in Race 8 and the Stewart Manor in Race 9. Equibase (updated 10:36 a.m. Eastern) lists mostly cloudy skies at 41°F with a northwest wind at 13 mph, and the temporary rail at 36 feet for the switched races. The percentages below are our Edge V2 model's win probability for each horse — the higher the number, the more likely the model makes that horse to win. Every rating below was read this morning from the individual Edge race pages and scratch-checked against the Equibase changes page.

Belmont Park Race 2 pick: #1 Hammerhead (27.1%)

Race 2 (12:10 p.m. ET) is an $80,000 allowance optional claimer now run over a mile on the all-weather for a $108,000 purse, and #1 Hammerhead tops the read at 27.1%. The why is the best figure note at Belmont today: a speed figure of 105.0 near the field top, on a rising line to a current 101, with a closer's profile in a race the pace map projects as a meltdown — three of the seven runners want the early lead, which is exactly the setup a rail-drawn closer wants on a switched surface. At 5/2 he is the morning-line favourite and the model keeps him clear. The dangers come off long layoffs: #6 Spirit Prince rates 18.1% returning from 255 days away, and #2 Depiction 12.8% off 429 days, with #5 Ciao Chuck at 14.0% between them. There are no scratches in Race 2. When a card comes off the turf, proven synthetic form and a pace setup matter more than grass pedigree — Hammerhead has both. Our track bias guide covers how surface switches reshuffle a field.

Belmont Park Race 5 pick: #6 Special Warfare (24.8%)

Race 5 (1:40 p.m. ET) is a $100,000 maiden special weight now run over a mile and a sixteenth on the all-weather, and it carries the card's bomb alert. #6 Special Warfare tops the read at 24.8% — but at 8/1 on the morning line, the market makes him barely an 11% chance, so the model sees a 13-point edge on a horse it makes the favourite. His why is a speed figure of 76.0 near the field top with a closer's profile; the pace wrinkle is that #7 Baytown Da Vinci projects as the lone speed and could steal it if nobody goes with him. Behind the pick, #8 Air Devil rates 17.4% at 12/1 with a bomb flag of his own, #2 Bring Cash 15.9%, and #1 Katz in the Cradle 12.2%. Two scratches thinned the race: #5 Nonstop and #9 Momentary Star are both out (vet — illness). An 8/1 shot the model makes the top pick is the definition of the spot this site exists to find — price and probability pointing opposite directions.

Edge Pick of the Day: Belmont Park Race 1

The opener (11:40 a.m. ET) deserves its own honest note. Edge's Pick of the Day is #5 Donegal Luster at 45% — the highest single number on today's national board — in a $100,000 maiden special weight over six and a half furlongs on the muddy dirt. Two scratches (#1 Louden and #3 Briggs N Dunn, both vet — illness) have cut the field to just three runners: Donegal Luster at 8/5, #2 Warspite at 2/1 and #4 Smead at 3/1, both first-time starters. The race page carries no deeper second-pass read for this field, so we present the 45% for what it is — the model's clear first-pass opinion in a three-horse race. With no place, show or exotic wagering offered, it is a watch-and-learn opener, not a betting race.

A full track is free every day on Edge

Edge now opens one complete track free every day for anyone with a free account — every race on that card, with the same ratings, value alerts and exotic tickets paying members see, and which track is free is a surprise until you sign up. Today's free track could be Belmont Park itself: check today's free track on Edge before first post, and if you want the whole Belmont Park card either way, it is all rated on Edge. Edge's headline Pick of the Day today is Belmont Park Race 1, #5 Donegal Luster, at 45% on the model's first-pass read in a three-runner field.

How the full Belmont Park card works on Edge

Two races are featured in full here, plus the Pick of the Day above; the other seven — including the $175,000 Awad Stakes in Race 8, where #3 Metallican carries a bomb alert, and the $175,000 Stewart Manor in Race 9 — are rated horse-by-horse on Edge. Start with the free picks page and today's free track, then open the complete Belmont card on Edge before the 11:40 a.m. Eastern first post. Today's flagship preview is Woodbine picks today.