Churchill Downs Picks Today — November 12, 2026: Oscar's Candy Headlines the V2 Card

Churchill Downs picks today — the card at a glance

Thursday, November 12, 2026 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky: nine races, first post 1:00 p.m. Eastern, and the deepest card on today's Aces & Races Edge board. Conditions are cloudy and cool — Edge listed 57°F at pull time and Equibase had it mostly cloudy with a west wind — and there are no surface changes: the three turf races (Races 3, 6 and 9) stay on the grass with the temporary rail set at 24 feet. The richest race on the card is Race 6, a $127,000 allowance over a mile on turf, backed up by two $120,000 maiden special weights in Races 1 and 3. Every rating below is the Edge V2 model read from the individual race pages this morning — not the V1 index numbers — and every pick has been scratch-checked against the Equibase changes page, which was updated at 9:58 a.m. Eastern today.

Featured race 1: Race 1 — #4 Oscar's Candy, V2 34.1%

The opener is a $120,000 maiden special weight over six furlongs on dirt, and it carries the strongest V2 signal at Churchill today. #4 Oscar's Candy rates 34.1% in V2 — the highest figure on this card — with the model's note pointing to a speed figure of 83.0, near the top of this field. At a 3/1 morning line, V2 also flags Oscar's Candy as the card's biggest value play at Churchill, rating the horse well above the line's implied chance. The next V2 chances are well back: #2 With You at 14.2%, #5 I Like to Party at 14.1% and #6 Candor at 13.7%. When the model separates one maiden this clearly from a $120,000 field, that is the horse the whole card is built around. You can see the full field's ratings on our Churchill Downs track hub.

Featured race 5: Race 5 — #6 Order Restored, V2 32.1%

Race 5 (2:57 p.m. ET) is a $100,000 maiden claiming race over six furlongs, and #6 Order Restored owns the second-biggest V2 number of the day at 32.1%. The why matters as much as the number: a speed figure of 87.0 — the highest cited in any of today's featured Churchill races — plus two standout efforts in the horse's last five starts. That combination, top figure plus repeatable form, is exactly what we look for in a maiden claimer, where one big number can be a fluke. Order Restored is the 5/2 morning-line favourite, and V2 agrees with the market for once. Behind the top pick, #3 Leedu (13.6%), #2 Will's Ali (13.0%) and #7 Bella Luna (12.6%) are closely bunched, which makes Order Restored the clean single in any multi-race sequence starting mid-card. For more on how we weigh a top figure against the rest of the field, see our pace analysis guide.

Featured race 2: Race 2 — #5 Oraia, V2 27.9% (and a key scratch)

Race 2 (1:29 p.m. ET) is a one-mile, $50,000 claiming race on dirt, and it changed shape this morning. #5 Oraia is the V2 top pick at 27.9% — V2 actually flipped the pick here, moving Oraia ahead of the V1 favourite — on a speed figure of 83.0 near the field top. The scratch news strengthens the case: #3 You're in Heaven, who was the V2 second choice at 27.0%, was scratched on the Equibase changes page (PrivVet — illness). With the main danger out, Oraia's edge over the remaining field — #4 Angel Bella at 12.7% and #6 Full Dolly at 12.6% in V2 — is now wide. One more scratch note for the later races: in Race 8, both #5 Track Phantom and #4 Tarantino are out, which leaves V2 top pick #3 Banned for Life (18.5%) in a much softer spot than the morning line suggests. Never bet a Churchill card without checking the changes first — a scratched horse never appears as a pick here.

Today's free race on Edge

The day's free race on Edge is not at Churchill — it is Race 6 at Delta Downs tonight (8:00 p.m. ET), where #4 C F Spunie Style carries the highest V2 rating on the entire four-track board at 34.6%. The full race — every horse rated, with the model's why for the pick — is free to read right now: today's free race on Edge. Our Delta Downs picks today post breaks that race down in full.

How the full Churchill card works on Edge

This post features three of the nine Churchill races. The other six — including the $127,000 Race 6 allowance and the late turf claimer in Race 9 — are rated horse-by-horse on Edge, with V2 percentages, the change from V1, and a plain-English why for every top pick. That is the difference between a preview and a full card: you see where the model is confident, where it disagrees with the morning line, and where a race is simply too open to force. Start with the free picks page, open today's free race, and if you want the whole Churchill card — plus Penn National, Remington Park and Delta Downs, all 32 races today — the full board is waiting on Edge. First post is 1:00 p.m. Eastern, so check the ratings before the opener goes off. Today's other track previews: Penn National picks today and Remington Park picks today.