Melbourne Cup Day at Flemington: The Playbook, the Result, and What It Taught Us

The result, up front

• The Cup was won by #20 Point Of Law — the horse this playbook named as the danger who "stays on my tickets" and was protected on the late Pick 4.
• The outright top pick #2 Trustyourinstinct ran 11th — stated honestly, same as everywhere else we publish.
• R9: #2 Shadhavar (the playbook's win consideration) won; Tomato Toastie, a Too Darn Hot runner, ran 2nd.

The full playbook, exactly as it was published for members before the card:

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The Cup runs 11:00 p.m. ET (3:00 p.m. Tuesday, Melbourne). Here's the condensed version of my work on the whole 10-race card — picks, prices I'll play at, and tickets. All numbers are saddlecloth numbers, not barriers.

TL;DR

• Cup top pick: #2 Trustyourinstinct. Main five: 2, 12, 24, 11, 16. Danger who stays on my tickets: #20 Point Of Law.
• Best single on the card: Race 8 #5 Ranarsson. Strongest undercard opinion: Race 6 #4 Sabaj.
• Late Pick 4 main ticket: $19.20 at a 20¢ base (structure below).

Conditions: Good 4, rail out 3m (latest report, checked Nov 2). Post times ET: R1 6:45pm, R2 7:20, R3 8:00, R4 8:40, R5 9:20, R6 9:55, R7 Cup 11:00pm, R8 11:50, R9 12:35am, R10 1:15am.

Reported scratches removed from everything below: R2 #9, #17 · R3 #3, #11 · R4 #14 · R6 #3, #12 · R8 #4, #6, #11 · R9 #16 · R10 #5, #10.

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R1 (1000m, 2yos): #1 Royal Press. The only one with race experience — a narrow second in the Debutante Stakes against eight debutants here. Danger: #7 Funded (two jump-out wins). Play the pair; I want 2-1+ on Royal Press to bet him straight.

R2 (2000m): #5 Politely Dun. Comes out of the Oct 14 Caulfield race (Johnich won, he was narrowly second) and gets a weight swing on that rival with Shinn staying on. Spread 5, 7, 13 (+ 10 Chispa wider — McDonald, low draw). Politely Dun is my value play at 6-1+.

R3 (1800m, 3yos): #8 Fringilla. Won decisively at Geelong (the runner-up later won the Geelong Classic), then a competitive fifth in the G3 Ethereal — class drop into this. Play 8, 1, 7 (+2 wider). Win consideration at 4-1+. Main danger: unbeaten #1 Mister Whiskers.

R4 (1000m): #4 Peyton. Fifth in the G2 Roman Consul behind Satono Glow is the best form here; back to 1000m is the only question. Core 4, 3, 2 (+12, 13 wider — Ole Go gets McDonald, The Speed Machine narrowly missed in the Red Anchor). Straight-win interest at 4-1+.

R5 (2800m): #17 Autumnheat. Won his last two over 2400m leading throughout, carries just 53kg, gate 5. Has to prove it at 2800m against stronger opposition. Play 17 over 4, 5, 2 (Tempesti the class danger — second to So You Are in the ATC St Leger). I want 7-2+.

R6 (1800m): #4 Sabaj. Out of the Rupert Clarke and Toorak — his last start was 3 lengths behind Lady Shenandoah. Serious class drop, Zahra rides. 3-1+ for me, with #10 Darkbonee and #5 St Lawrence as protection.

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The Cup (3200m, 24 runners)

My five, in preference order 2, 12, 24, 11, 16:

• #2 Trustyourinstinct (57kg, McDonald, gate 18) — Curragh Cup winner, 4th in the Irish St Leger behind Scandinavia. Proper staying class. Needs cover from the wide draw. Play at 6-1+.
• #12 Hopewell Rock (54.5kg, gate 15) — Won at Goodwood over ~2800m, narrowly missed in a 22-runner Ebor. Only 10 starts. Unraced since Aug 22 and first run in Australia are the queries. 8-1+.
• #24 Shockletz (51kg, gate 17) — Feather weight. Won the Archer here, 2nd in the Tesio carrying 58kg. Flemington record: 3 wins, 2 seconds from 9. Class rise and the two miles are the questions. 10-1+.
• #11 Juja Kibo (55kg, gate 14) — Won The Metropolitan and the Moonee Valley Cup back-to-back, tactically flexible, drops 3kg. Has an unplaced two-mile attempt on the page. 10-1+.
• #16 So You Are (54kg, Rachel King, gate 7) — Four straight wins (Colin Stephen, St Leger, Bendigo Cup), settles on pace, 6-day turnaround and first 3200m test. 10-1+.

Danger: #20 Point Of Law — Geelong Cup winner at his Australian debut, 53kg, gate 9, only 5 starts. Too credible to leave out. First wider additions: #1 Sons And Lovers (top weight, G2 staying form) and #22 Mr Monaco (Bart Cummings winner, 52.5kg). Exotic candidates underneath: 4, 10, 19, 23. Previous Cup form counts here — Knight's Choice (2024 winner) and Middle Earth (3rd last year) are wider exotic throw-ins only for me.

Exacta: box 2, 11, 12, 16, 24 = $10 at a 50¢ base. (Doesn't cover Point Of Law splitting them.)

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R8 (1400m, 3yos): #5 Ranarsson — my single. Two decisive wins, already settles near the pace and finishes at this distance, carries 54kg against better-credentialed horses under more weight. #2 Barracks (narrow Blue Sapphire miss) is the danger and the only one I add on the expanded ticket. I want 3-2+.

R9 (1400m, mares): #2 Shadhavar. Decisive Tristarc winner, low draw, Williams rides — but she goes up to 58kg while #8 Terilee, who chased her home, stays at 55kg. Play 2 over 11, 1, 8 (Gold Medallist and Stylish both come out of the Rose Of Kingston here). Win consideration at 2-1+, not a single.

R10 (1400m): #1 Buccleuch. Won the key Oct 14 Caulfield reference race (He'll Rip 3rd, Space Rider 4th, Jett Smash 6th) and keeps Egan from a good draw — but the beaten brigade all get weight from him now. Play 1 over 4, 6, 7. I want 5-2+.

Tickets

• Early Pick 4 (R1–R4), compact: 1,7 / 5,7,13 / 1,7,8 / 2,3,4 = $10.80 at 20¢
• Late Pick 4 (R7–R10), small: 2,11,12,16,20,24 / 5 / 2,11 / 1,4 = $4.80 at 20¢
• Late Pick 4, main (my play): 2,11,12,16,20,24 / 5 / 1,2,8,11 / 1,4,6,7 = $19.20 at 20¢ — the whole structure leans on Ranarsson making the class jump in R8. If you don't buy him, spend smaller.
• Optional Pick 3 (R6–R8): 4,5,10 / 2,11,12,16,20,24 / 2,5 = $7.20 at 20¢

Set the night's limit before the first race — covering all ten races doesn't mean betting all ten, and the last race isn't a recovery plan.

This analysis was first published for The Winner's Circle members on Patreon before the card. Daily Edge V2 picks, scorecards and playbooks: https://www.patreon.com/Aces_and_Races — Edge: https://edge.acesandraces.com

Form notes: built from the Sky Racing World Flemington PPs dated Nov 2 (US edition); field and barriers cross-checked with the VRC's official Cup field; scratches per Racing and Sports at time of writing. Prices are my minimum entry points, not live odds. Bet only where legal and within your means.