Step 1: Understand What Defines a Key Race

A race is considered a “key race” when:

• Multiple horses from that race win or place highly in their subsequent starts.

• The competition level was notably strong (e.g., higher-class horses or competitive times).

Why They Matter: Key races often reveal horses that competed well against top-notch rivals but didn’t necessarily win, offering hidden betting value.

Source: Daily Racing Form’s Guide to Key Races

Step 2: Track Results of Runners

• Look for races where horses finishing in the top three to five consistently perform well in their next starts.

• Use past performance charts or software to track next-out winners and their odds.

Example:
Horse A finishes 4th but wins a $40k Allowance race next out. Horse B finishes 3rd and runs second in a $50k Stakes. This suggests the original race was highly competitive.

Tools to Use:

• Equibase Results Charts

• Formulator by DRF

Step 3: Analyze the Race Conditions

Not all key races are created equal. Evaluate:

• Class Level: Higher-class races (Stakes, Allowance) are more likely to produce key races.

• Field Size: Larger fields often indicate stronger competition.

• Surface and Distance: Horses from tough turf routes or dirt sprints often dominate subsequent fields.

Pro Tip: Look for unusual factors, like changes in track bias or weather, that may have impacted the results.

Source: Brisnet’s Handicapping Insights

Step 4: Compare Beyer or Speed Figures

• Analyze whether horses exiting the race show improving or consistently strong speed figures in their next starts.

• Significant jumps in figures can indicate the race’s quality.

Example: A horse with a Beyer of 80 in the key race jumps to 88 in their next win.

Source: Beyer Speed Figures explained on DRF

Step 5: Watch Race Replays

• Focus on horses that encountered trouble but still ran competitively (e.g., wide trips, traffic issues).

• These horses are often overlooked by bettors in their next start.

Example: A horse bumped at the start but still finishes 3rd in a key race is a strong contender next time out.

Tools:

• TwinSpires Replay Service

• YouTube Race Replays

Step 6: Review Key Race Lists

Many handicapping services, including Daily Racing Form and Brisnet, offer key race reports. These identify specific races with multiple next-out winners.

Recommended Sources:

• DRF Key Race Reports

• Brisnet Race Analysis

Step 7: Check Trainer Patterns

• Focus on trainers known for spotting key race opportunities.

• Horses claimed or entered by sharp trainers after such races are often live plays.

Example: A trainer like Chad Brown entering a horse from a key race into a stakes event is a strong signal.

Tool: Trainer/Jockey stats in Formulator or Brisnet.

Step 8: Look for Value

• Key races often lead to “buzz” horses, driving odds down. However, digging deeper can uncover overlooked contenders from the same race.

• Focus on horses with improving patterns that are not the obvious favorites.

Final Pro Tip

Keep a personal log of key races and the subsequent performances of their runners. Over time, you’ll develop an intuition for spotting high-quality fields and horses.