What Taylor Fritz Needs to Do to Beat Jannik Sinner

Taylor Fritz has been at the forefront of a resurgence in American men’s tennis, becoming a consistent presence in the Top 10 and representing a new wave of U.S. talent on the global stage. As he prepares to face Jannik Sinner in the ATP Finals, Fritz has an opportunity to add another significant milestone to his career. However, defeating the dynamic and in-form Italian will require Fritz to execute a near-perfect game plan.

Fritz’s Recent Success and Momentum

Fritz has carried the American flag proudly, achieving several milestones in 2023 and 2024:

• Consistent Top 10 Presence: Fritz has been a fixture in the ATP Top 10, becoming the highest-ranked American male since Andy Roddick. His ability to compete consistently at the highest level has solidified his status as a key figure in American tennis.

• Breakthrough Titles: Fritz claimed titles in Delray Beach and Atlanta this year, adding to his growing collection of ATP trophies. His aggressive baseline game and unyielding serve have been critical in these victories.

• Grand Slam Success: While his Grand Slam record has room for improvement, Fritz reached the quarterfinals at Wimbledon in 2023 and put together strong performances at the US Open, where he pushed deep into the second week.

• ATP Finals Milestone: Fritz is only the second American in the last decade to qualify for the prestigious ATP Finals, following in the footsteps of Jack Sock in 2017. His progress to the championship match highlights his growing maturity and resilience on the biggest stages.

With these achievements, Fritz has proven himself as a player capable of competing with the world’s best. However, his opponent, Jannik Sinner, represents a different kind of challenge.

Keys to Victory Against Jannik Sinner

To overcome Sinner, Fritz must play with precision, intelligence, and adaptability. Here’s what he needs to focus on:

1. Dominate with His Serve

Fritz’s serve has been his most reliable weapon throughout the season. In his recent matches, he has consistently won over 75% of points behind his first serve. Against Sinner, Fritz must aim for a first-serve percentage above 70% while mixing up locations to keep the Italian guessing. Sinner has a strong return game, particularly on second serves, so minimizing those opportunities will be critical.

Stat Focus: Fritz has saved 60% of break points faced during the ATP Finals, which highlights his ability to handle pressure moments on serve. He’ll need that composure against Sinner’s aggressive returning.

2. Take Control of Baseline Exchanges

Sinner thrives in long baseline rallies, using his heavy forehand to dictate play. Fritz must counter this by staying aggressive, targeting deep corners to keep Sinner on the move. Fritz’s forehand, which has been effective all week, needs to match Sinner’s intensity while avoiding errors.

A key adjustment will be avoiding the mid-court balls that allow Sinner to step inside and unleash his powerful groundstrokes. Fritz should focus on constructing points that neutralize Sinner’s forehand and force him to generate pace off his backhand.

Stat Focus: Fritz has won 68% of rallies lasting under five shots in this tournament. Shortening points against Sinner could be the difference-maker.

3. Target Sinner’s Backhand

Sinner’s backhand is solid but lacks the explosiveness of his forehand. Fritz should direct the majority of his baseline shots cross-court to Sinner’s backhand, especially during neutral rallies. By doing so, he can force Sinner into defensive positions and create openings to attack down the line.

4. Incorporate Net Play

Fritz’s ability to finish points at the net will be critical. Sinner prefers to grind out points from the baseline, so Fritz can disrupt his rhythm with well-timed net approaches. Fritz’s success rate at the net in this tournament has been impressive, and serve-and-volley plays could further pressure Sinner’s return game.

Stat Focus: Fritz has won nearly 70% of his net points during the ATP Finals, showcasing his ability to execute clean finishes at the net.

5. Stay Mentally Tough in Pressure Moments

Sinner is one of the most mentally composed players on tour, often thriving in tight situations. Fritz will need to match this composure, especially during crucial moments like break points and tiebreaks. His semifinal victory over Alexander Zverev, which came down to a deciding set, demonstrated his ability to stay calm under pressure.

6. Capitalize on Sinner’s Movement

While Sinner’s movement is strong, he occasionally struggles with sharp directional changes. Fritz can exploit this by using heavy cross-court angles and mixing in drop shots. Forcing Sinner to cover extra ground will test his endurance and potentially draw errors.

Head-to-Head Insights

Sinner leads the head-to-head 2-1, including a dominant straight-sets win during the group stage of this ATP Finals. Fritz’s lone victory came in 2022, when he played an aggressive, error-free match to neutralize Sinner’s weapons. This serves as a blueprint for success, but Fritz will need to elevate his game to counter the current form of the World No. 1.

The Bottom Line

Taylor Fritz has already proven himself as a rising force in men’s tennis, and a victory against Jannik Sinner would solidify his status as the leader of American tennis in this era. To win, Fritz must serve with precision, maintain aggression in baseline rallies, exploit Sinner’s backhand, and stay mentally tough in key moments. If Fritz executes this game plan effectively, he has a genuine chance to upset the top-ranked Italian and claim the ATP Finals title.