🔥 Breaking Down the Field with Vic’s Paddock Picks 🔥

The Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs is a key Kentucky Derby prep race, featuring a $250,000 purse over 1 1/16 miles (8.5F) on dirt. The field is competitive, with a mix of proven runners, improving contenders, and potential longshots looking to make their mark. Let’s dive into the field with an unbiased, form-based breakdown to find the best betting opportunities.

Contenders & Form Analysis

• #7 Poster (3-3) – Undefeated and has done nothing wrong. Cutting back slightly in distance shouldn’t be an issue. Has worked over the track, indicating they pointed to this spot and shipped in early. Homebred for Godolphin, making this a well-planned race. One of the top speed figures in the group in his last race.

• #6 Owen Almighty – Was disqualified for shutting off a rail bid on a turn. Has been working very well and should be on the pace early. Notably, adds first-time blinkers, which could sharpen his focus. Has a strong Equibase Speed Figure of 95 from his last race, making him a serious contender.

• #9 (Wildcard) – The X-factor in this field. Those performances over the mud were impressive, and this runner could be the real deal. Notably, the only horse in the field to have successfully made this distance before.

• #3 John Hancock – The top pick by Trackmaster. Has consistently solid speed figures, averaging 94 of late. However, he will be racing off Lasix today, which could be a key factor.

• #4 Dr Ruben M – Has the best races against top competition (Rank, Get Away Car, Coal Battle). Needs a career-best performance to win, and distance remains a question mark. Junior Alvarado can wake him up, but must avoid getting drawn into an early pace battle.

• #2 Treaty of Rome – Could be sitting on a big effort. Chad Brown excels with Dylan Davis aboard, and this one is expected to sit a nice, ground-saving trip on the inside. Has the benefit of a hot trainer in his corner.

  Trip Projections:

  • #2 – Inside ground-saving trip

  • #7 – Outside tracking trip

Pace Breakdown

• Early Speed (Front Runners): #1, #3, #4, #6

• Middle Pack (Stalkers/Pace Pressers): #2, #5, #7, #8, #9

• Off-the-Pace/Closers: #10

Betting Strategy

• Trifecta & Exacta Box: 2, 7, 9

• Longshot Play: #9 Across the Board (Win, Place, Show) – Offers value as the longshot play.

This race presents an interesting mix of proven form (#7), upside potential (#2, #9), and question marks on distance. A strong pace scenario could set up for the right stalker or off-the-pace runner to capitalize.

Final Thoughts & Betting Strategy

This race presents a great blend of proven class, rising talent, and potential upset contenders. The pace setup looks competitive, and there’s a strong case for a midpack or stalking runner to capitalize late.

💰 Key Bets:
✔ Trifecta & Exacta Box: 2, 7, 9
✔ Longshot Play: #9 Across the Board (Win, Place, Show) – A value play with upside.

A huge thank you to Vic’s Paddock Picks for providing top-tier insight and helping break down this field. Make sure to follow along for more expert analysis and sharp betting strategies. Best of luck at the windows! 🏇💰