The Cigar Mile (Grade 2) is a highly competitive one-mile race for three-year-olds and upward, offering a $500,000 purse. It features top-tier horses, with weights adjusted by the handicap system. The race’s complexity makes strategic handicapping crucial.

Horse-by-Horse Breakdown

1. Book’em Danno (4-1)

• Strengths: Solid form in 2024 with 6 wins in 10 starts, including multiple graded stakes. Proven over the distance with strong Beyer figures (104).

• Concerns: Struggled slightly when stretching out to a mile in past attempts.

• Summary: A consistent, hard-knocking horse with speed and grit. Contender for the exacta.

2. Nelson Avenue (30-1)

• Strengths: Front-running style; strong efforts in allowance company. Upset potential if left alone on the lead.

• Concerns: Faces tougher competition and lacks graded stakes experience.

• Summary: Longshot who could surprise with an uncontested lead but seems outclassed.

3. Repo Rocks (30-1)

• Strengths: Multiple graded stakes-placed. Has a good closing kick, suited for strong late pace.

• Concerns: Has not won at this level since early 2023 and appears to be regressing.

• Summary: Will need a pace collapse to factor in late.

4. Vinsanity (50-1)

• Strengths: Recently claimed and showed improved form. Capable at lower levels.

• Concerns: Faces a massive class hike and has struggled in graded stakes before.

• Summary: A toss unless major improvement surfaces.

5. Mullikin (3-1)

• Strengths: Has flourished in 2024, with four wins from five starts, including Grade 1 victories. Strong tactical speed and versatility.

• Concerns: Coming off a layoff since the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (3rd place).

• Summary: The horse to beat. Will likely sit a stalking trip and pounce late.

6. Law Professor (15-1)

• Strengths: Loves Aqueduct (5 wins here) and shows excellent consistency in stakes races.

• Concerns: May need a longer distance to show his best.

• Summary: A grinder who might pick up pieces late but needs others to falter.

7. Locked (9-2)

• Strengths: Young, improving colt with strong efforts in Grade 1 company. Dominated a tough allowance last time out.

• Concerns: Inexperienced against older horses.

• Summary: A rising star. Figures to sit mid-pack and could be dangerous if he gets a clean trip.

8. Pipeline (20-1)

• Strengths: Front-running speed and proven ability to hang tough against stakes competition.

• Concerns: Often fades late when facing pressure. Might struggle with classier opponents.

• Summary: Could spice up exotics if he holds on for a minor share.

9. Señor Buscador (6-1)

• Strengths: Ultra-consistent in graded stakes. Placed in both the Saudi Cup and the Pegasus World Cup this year.

• Concerns: Prefers longer distances and could be compromised by a slow pace.

• Summary: A talented runner who must work to overcome pace and distance limitations.

10. Coastal Mission (12-1)

• Strengths: Won two of his last three, including the Grade 3 Forty Niner Stakes at Aqueduct.

• Concerns: Has struggled when facing Grade 1 company in the past.

• Summary: A step below the best here, but recent form keeps him in the conversation.

11. Post Time (7-2)

• Strengths: Consistent colt with tactical speed and proven stakes class.

• Concerns: Needs to prove he can step up against Grade 1-caliber fields.

• Summary: A reliable type who always fires. Exotics contender.

Key Contenders

1. Mullikin (5) – The clear top choice based on class, speed, and versatility.

2. Locked (7) – Exciting prospect capable of challenging Mullikin.

3. Book’em Danno (1) – Consistent performer likely to be in the mix.

4. Señor Buscador (9) – Dangerous late closer with a touch of class.

Selections

1. Win: Mullikin (5)

2. Place: Locked (7)

3. Show: Book’em Danno (1)

4. Exotics: Include Señor Buscador (9) and Post Time (11) for trifectas/superfectas.

Betting Strategy

• Win: Mullikin

• Exacta Box (3 Horses): Mullikin, Locked, Book’em Danno

• Trifecta Key: Mullikin over Locked, Book’em Danno, and Señor Buscador.

Good luck, and enjoy the thrills of the Cigar Mile! 🍀