Saturday, February 14, 2026 | A Coast-to-Coast Handicapping Feature

Love is in the air, but so is opportunity. With 14 tracks firing across the country this Valentine’s Day, we’ve sifted through the noise to bring you the sweetest plays on the board. From graded stakes headliners at Fair Grounds and Gulfstream to under-the-radar value plays at Charles Town and Fonner Park, here’s your all-in-one guide to the best action of the day.

The Main Event — Fair Grounds Stakes Bonanza

Fair Grounds loads up with five stakes on the card, headlined by a pair of Grade 2 preps that could shape the spring classics.

Race 12 — Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes | 9 Furlongs Dirt | 5:30 PM CT

The Kentucky Derby trail runs through New Orleans today. Paladin (post 4) is the one to beat, boasting the best speed figures in the field by a wide margin and the highest overall profile when you factor in connections — trainer Chad Brown and jockey Tyler Gaffalione have been money all meet. At 8/5 on the morning line, he’s short but deserving. Golden Tempo (post 2) offers a stalking style that could be dangerous if the pace gets hot up front, and at 3/1 he’s the clear alternative. Chip Honcho (post 5) and Carson Street (post 3) round out the main contenders but will need career-best efforts.

Betting suggestion: Paladin on top in exactas keyed to Golden Tempo and Chip Honcho. A straight win bet on Paladin is also justified at this price — he towers over this group.

Race 11 — Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Rachel Alexandra Stakes | 8.5 Furlongs Dirt | 5:00 PM CT

Bella Ballerina (post 3) is the standout here, with a massive edge in both speed and intangibles. Trainer Brad Walsh and Gaffalione team up again, and the 2/1 morning line might actually be generous. Just Singing (post 1) is the most logical runner-up at 7/2, while Luv Your Neighbor (post 6) and Powered by Family (post 5) are in the mix for minor awards.

Betting suggestion: Bella Ballerina to win, and single her in multi-race sequences if you’re playing the All Stakes Pick 5.

Race 9 — Grade 3 Mineshaft Stakes | 8.5 Furlongs Dirt | 4:00 PM CT

Hit Show (post 6) projects as the fastest horse on the grounds today across all 14 tracks. The Brad Cox trainee with Florent Geroux up has a significant speed advantage and strong underlying factors. Time to Win (post 5) and Accelerize (post 2) are quality opponents, but they’ll need to find another gear.

Betting suggestion: Hit Show is a single in rolling pick sequences. In the trifecta, use Time to Win and Accelerize underneath, with Duke of Duval (post 1) as a price bomb for third.

Race 10 — Grade 3 Fair Grounds Stakes | 9 Furlongs Turf | 4:30 PM CT

Lagynos (post 9) has the top figure and a huge edge in the intangible department — his profile screams “best horse in the race” from every angle. At 7/2, he’s a fair price. Brilliant Berti (post 2) and Montador (post 6) are the exacta fill, while Kupuna (post 7) at 3/1 looks like the most likely overbet horse on the card.

Betting suggestion: Lagynos to win. Key him over Brilliant Berti and Montador in exactas. Use Kupuna underneath only in trifectas and supers.

Race 3 — Colonel Power Stakes | 5.5 Furlongs Turf | 1:00 PM CT

Usually Wrong (post 5) towers over this sprint field with an enormous advantage in both speed and profile. The Robertino Diodoro trainee at 6/5 should win this comfortably.

Betting suggestion: Use as a single in the Pick 3. Save your exotic money for other races.

Gulfstream Park — Graded Stakes and Live Longshots

Race 11 — Grade 3 Royal Delta Stakes | 8.5 Furlongs Dirt | 5:20 PM ET

Shred the Gnar (post 4) is the dominant figure here and the top-rated filly or mare on the entire Gulfstream card. Trainer Brian Lynch has her pointed for a peak effort. Alpine Princess (post 1) for Brad Cox is the clear second choice, and Senza Parole (post 2) rounds out a playable top three.

Betting suggestion: Shred the Gnar to win, exacta box with Alpine Princess and Senza Parole.

Race 7 — Allowance Optional Claiming | 8 Furlongs Dirt | 3:20 PM ET

Back Em Up (post 3) is one of the strongest plays on the entire day’s card. His projected speed figures tower over this field, and his overall profile is head and shoulders above the rest. At 8/5, he’s a confident win play.

Betting suggestion: Win bet on Back Em Up. In the exacta, key him over Grande (post 6) and Praetor (post 8).

Race 10 — Allowance Optional Claiming | 8.5 Furlongs Turf | 4:50 PM ET

Vixen (post 1) is a clear top choice for the Mark Casse barn. The rail draw is the only concern, but her figure edge is significant.

Betting suggestion: Vixen on top of verticle exotics. Spread underneath to Modarosa (post 6) and Studio Hall (post 8) for value.

Laurel Park — Big Afternoon for Maryland Racing

Race 9 — General George Stakes | 7 Furlongs Dirt | 4:05 PM ET

Quint’s Brew (post 4) is a monster. His projected figures make this look like a one-horse race, and the 9/5 morning line might actually be an overlay once you account for the class edge he holds over this field. Blue Kingdom (post 1) and Point Dume (post 5) are the logical exacta fill, but neither projects to be close.

Betting suggestion: Quint’s Brew to win and as a Pick 3 single. In the exacta, key him over Blue Kingdom and Point Dume.

Race 8 — Barbara Fritchie Stakes | 7 Furlongs Dirt | 3:34 PM ET

Takethemoneyhoney (post 4) has the edge, but this is much more competitive than the General George. Passage East (post 7) and Dry Powder (post 1) project nearly identical figures and both have strong positive profiles. A three-horse exacta box is the smart play.

Betting suggestion: Exacta box Takethemoneyhoney, Passage East, and Dry Powder. Use all three in trifecta keys with Hold Your Breath (post 2) filling out the fourth slot.

Race 7 — Post Time Stakes | 9 Furlongs Dirt | 3:04 PM ET

Call Me Fast (post 5) has a clear speed advantage and the connections to get the job done. Trainer Jamie Ness has been sharp at the meet.

Betting suggestion: Call Me Fast as a single in sequences.

Oaklawn Park — Deep Fields and Derby Trail Action

Race 9 — Dixie Belle Stakes | 6 Furlongs Dirt | 4:38 PM CT

This is a wide-open affair and one of the best betting races of the day. Just Bluffing (post 10) gets the nod as the top projection at 8/1 morning line — that’s a potential overlay if she runs to her numbers. Little Miss Curlin (post 6) at 8/5 will take a ton of money but is only marginally behind. French Friction (post 1) for Mark Casse adds another layer of intrigue.

Betting suggestion: Just Bluffing is the value play of the entire card. Use her on top of exactas and trifectas with Little Miss Curlin and French Friction. A win bet at 8/1 is absolutely worth a shot.

Race 10 — Allowance Optional Claiming | 8.5 Furlongs Dirt | 5:10 PM CT

Navajo Warrior (post 5) for Saffie Joseph is head and shoulders above this group. The 7/5 price is short but warranted.

Betting suggestion: Single in the late double and Pick 3.

Race 3 — Starter Allowance | 6 Furlongs Dirt | 1:29 PM CT

Uncashed (post 7) has a massive edge over this field. His projected figure is nearly a full class level above the second horse, and trainer Larry Rivelli has been rolling. At 9/5, he’s a confident play.

Betting suggestion: Uncashed to win. Use as a Pick 5 anchor.

Aqueduct — Stakes Doubleheader and a Potential Romp

Race 9 — Say Florida Sandy Stakes | 7 Furlongs Dirt | 4:13 PM ET

National Identity (post 3) projects the highest figure of any horse running at Aqueduct today and has a solid edge over his statebred rivals. Acoustic Ave (post 2) and The Wine Steward (post 7) make it interesting underneath.

Betting suggestion: National Identity to win. Exactas keyed to Acoustic Ave and The Wine Steward.

Race 4 — Damon Runyon Stakes | 7 Furlongs Dirt | 1:46 PM ET

Arctic Beast (post 6) for Mike Maker is the clear top choice, with Time to Roll (post 4) as a dangerous closer.

Betting suggestion: Arctic Beast over Time to Roll in the exacta.

Race 3 — Claiming $50,000 | 6.5 Furlongs Dirt | 1:18 PM ET

Good Lord (post 6) is a standout — Linda Rice sends out the heavy favorite with a figure that dwarfs this field. At even money, the value is in using him as a single in sequences.

Betting suggestion: Single Good Lord in the Pick 5 and Pick 3.

Santa Anita Park — Turf Lovers’ Delight

Race 7 — Grade 3 San Marcos Stakes | 10 Furlongs Turf | 3:37 PM PT

Stay Hot (post 7) and Gold Phoenix (post 9) project identical top figures, setting up a terrific duel. Stay Hot gets the edge on overall profile, but Phil D’Amato’s Gold Phoenix is a proven turf warrior. Endlessly (post 1) and Mondego (post 5) could outrun their odds.

Betting suggestion: Exacta box Stay Hot and Gold Phoenix. In the trifecta, add Endlessly and Mondego underneath. This is a “spread” race — don’t try to single anyone.

Race 5 — Allowance | ~6.5 Furlongs Turf | 2:37 PM PT

Bro Bro (post 8) for Doug O’Neill gets the top call in a competitive Cal-bred turf allowance. Clever Clover (post 2) is right there with him.

Betting suggestion: Bro Bro over Clever Clover in the exacta, but be prepared for a blanket finish.

Sam Houston — Texas-Sized Stakes Card

Race 11 — David E. Hooper Stakes | 7 Furlongs Dirt | 5:30 PM CT

Victory for Vets (post 8) is the class of the field and is attempting a stakes double — he’s also entered in Race 12 on the turf. His speed figures and profile tower over these Texas-breds. Raise the Bar (post 1) is the logical runner-up.

Betting suggestion: Victory for Vets to win confidently.

Race 9 — Miss Bluebonnet Turf Stakes | 8 Furlongs Turf | 4:36 PM CT

Too Much Kiki (post 9) has the best figure and a huge profile advantage. Imaluckycharm (post 11) is the exacta partner.

Betting suggestion: Too Much Kiki on top, keyed to Imaluckycharm in the exacta.

Tampa Bay Downs — Turf Sprint Fireworks

Race 10 — Turf Dash Stakes | 5 Furlongs Turf | 4:49 PM ET

My Boy Prince (post 2) for Mark Casse is the speed and class of this field, with a comfortable edge in the figures. Rezasrolex (post 3) is the main threat underneath.

Betting suggestion: My Boy Prince to win. Key over Rezasrolex, Coppola (post 9), and Works for Me (post 4) in exactas and trifectas.

Race 6 — Lightning City Stakes | 5 Furlongs Turf | 2:47 PM ET

Love Appeals (post 5) for Christophe Clement is the strongest turf sprint filly going today. Creed’s Gold (post 3) for Casse is the clear second choice.

Betting suggestion: Love Appeals to win. Exacta key over Creed’s Gold.

Turfway Park — Nightcap Stakes

Race 9 — Dust Commander Stakes | 8.5 Furlongs Synthetic | 9:55 PM ET

Encino (post 4) for Brad Cox closes out the national stakes schedule with a bang. His projected figure is far and away the best in this field, and the 6/5 morning line might actually be generous given how much he towers over these rivals.

Betting suggestion: Encino to win and as a single in the late double.

Best Bets of the Day — The Valentine’s Five

These are the five most confident plays across all 14 tracks:

1. Fair Grounds Race 9 — Hit Show (post 6) | The best horse on the best card of the day. He should handle this Grade 3 field with authority.

2. Oaklawn Race 9 — Just Bluffing (post 10) | The value play of the day at 8/1 morning line in the Dixie Belle. She projects to be the fastest filly in the field.

3. Laurel Race 9 — Quint’s Brew (post 4) | Dominant speed figures in the General George. This is a commanding advantage.

4. Fair Grounds Race 12 — Paladin (post 4) | The most important Derby prep of the day, and he’s clearly the best horse in the Risen Star.

5. Aqueduct Race 3 — Good Lord (post 6) | The biggest figure edge of any horse against their respective field today. A potential romp.

Multi-Race Sequence of the Day

Fair Grounds All Stakes Pick 5 (Races 8-12) — $1,000,000 Estimated Pool

This is the marquee wager of the day. Here’s how to structure it:

• Race 8 (Albert M. Stall Memorial): Medoro (post 1) with Oversubscribed (post 2)

• Race 9 (Mineshaft): Hit Show (post 6) — Single

• Race 10 (Fair Grounds Stakes): Lagynos (post 9) with Brilliant Berti (post 2) and Montador (post 6)

• Race 11 (Rachel Alexandra): Bella Ballerina (post 3) — Single

• Race 12 (Risen Star): Paladin (post 4) with Golden Tempo (post 2)

Cost: $12 for a $1 base

This ticket gives you two confident singles and reasonable spread in the more competitive races. If you want to go deeper, add Kupuna in Race 10 and Chip Honcho in Race 12 for a $24 ticket.

Good luck out there, and Happy Valentine’s Day from Aces and Races. May the speed be with you.

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