Pretty strange to have such heavy action on a Tuesday… but we’re not complaining! The Blue Grass features a handful of serious Kentucky Derby contenders, and we’re taking a strong stand with #6 Chancer McPatrick.

Last out, Chancer was second behind #4 Owen Almighty in the Tampa Bay Derby, but that race was more illusion than substance. Owen walked on the lead, completely unpressured, and only had to run for a quarter mile. Meanwhile, Chancer sat off it, saved ground, and still closed well into a race shape that worked against him. Today, second off the layoff, he gets Flavien Prat, more pace to chase, and a setup that should favor his style. If he improves as expected, he’s a big threat.

Speed figures & final time analysis:

• Tampa Bay Derby ran about 0.5 seconds faster than par—but with a soft pace.

• Today’s Blue Grass is projected at 1:50.31, a 5-length jump over historical par (1:51.17).

• Only three horses have proven they can live in that range: #1 River Thames, #4 Owen Almighty, and #6 Chancer McPatrick.

Horse-by-horse thoughts:

• #1 River Thames: Tactical, consistent, drawn perfectly. Major win threat.

• #4 Owen Almighty: Absolutely live, but won’t get the same easy trip.

• #3 Burnham Square: Grinder type—plays well underneath in exotics.

• #7 Admiral Dennis: Light coverage for second—could sneak in if the race falls apart late.

Ticket is structured to press #6 Chancer McPatrick on top, with #1 and #4 layered through and #3 rounding out key underneath spots. Slight insurance using #7 in second on a small spread. If #6 takes the step forward I expect, this plays for a clean hit and some real upside.

Note: I’ve got #1, #3, and #6 in my KY Derby Futures at long odds—this is where the journey starts.