Pinatubo First Yearlings Handicap (5 1/2 Furlongs, Turf)

🏆 Top 3 Contenders:

 #10 Altercation (35% chance of winning) – 3/1

✅ Strengths:

• 2 wins in 6 races, including a third-place finish in a $37K Benchmark 64 race over 5 1/2 furlongs last start.

• Finished 2nd at Randwick in December 2024, showing potential at this level.

• Proven at the distance and in wet track conditions.

⚠️ Concerns:

• Still relatively inexperienced, but has shown solid progress.

 #4 Opal Fields (30% chance of winning) – 9/1

✅ Strengths:

• 3 wins from 11 starts, including a strong victory at Hawkesbury in November 2024 over a similar distance.

• Has placed well in Benchmark 72 races, proving it can handle this class.

• Good tactical speed, which will be an advantage in this sprint.

⚠️ Concerns:

• Needs to be sharper at the start to avoid getting caught wide.

#6 Jamakin Money (20% chance of winning) – 8/1

✅ Strengths:

• Won its last race impressively by 2.5 lengths at Dubbo over 5 furlongs.

• Good gate speed and has shown an ability to maintain a strong finishing burst.

• Trainer Damien Lane has a 30% strike rate with similar runners.

⚠️ Concerns:

• Stepping up in class against stronger competition.

Other Notable Runners:

• #1 Angel Down (10%) – 10/1 🏇 (Dark Horse with potential)

  • 2 wins from 5 races, but has been inconsistent.

  • Prefers softer tracks, which could play a role if conditions change.

• #2 Wind Of Change (5%) – 18/1 🔥 (Longshot place chance)

  • 2 wins in 13 races, but has never won over this distance.

  • Likely needs a longer trip to be most effective.

• #3 Divine Vicky (5%) – 15/1 🏇 (Needs improvement)

  • 3 wins in 14 races, but recent form has been weak.

  • Will need a career-best run to challenge here.

• #7 To The Extreme (5%) – 12/1 ⚡ (Speedster but unproven at the level)

  • Won a maiden race impressively, but has struggled against better horses.

  • Might try to lead early but could fade late.

• #8 Russian Snitzel (5%) – 10/1 🏇 (Unproven in this company)

  • Has good early speed but needs to improve in the final stretch.

  • Could grab a place if it finds a favorable pace scenario.

• #9 Emilia Jane (5%) – 9/1 🔥 (Lightly raced but talented)

  • Only 3 career starts, with 1 win, but improving.

  • Trainer Joseph Pride is known for getting improvement from young runners.

• #11 Sukida (5%) – 11/2 🏇 (Potential but needs to step up)

  • Won a maiden but struggled in its last race.

  • Might not have the class to compete here.

• #12 Mandalong Starz (3%) – 150/1 🏇 (Big outsider, but could surprise)

  • Only 1 win in 23 starts, but has run well in longer races.

  • Likely to struggle with the pace of this sprint.

Final Take:

• #10 Altercation is the most likely winner, with #4 Opal Fields and #6 Jamakin Money close behind.

• Value bet: #1 Angel Down at 10/1 for a place or exotic wager.

• Wildcard: #9 Emilia Jane has potential to surprise with a late charge.