Race Details

• Race Name: TAB BM65 Handicap

• Track: Ellerslie (New Zealand)

• Distance: 7 Furlongs (1400m)

• Class: Benchmark 65

• Purse: $47,000

• Time: 6:20 PM ET (3:20 PM PT)

• Weather & Track Conditions: Forecast shows good-to-soft going; check for updates closer to the race.

Overview

A competitive field of 12 horses takes to the 7-furlong start at Ellerslie, with a mix of seasoned performers and emerging talents. With benchmark 65 conditions, expect close finishes, as many runners come off consistent recent form. Key factors like track condition, gate position, and recent trends will likely dictate the outcome.

Summary & Analysis of Each Horse (Race 1)

1. Smokeshow (5-1)

• Jockey: Masa Hashizume (16% wins, 40% top-three finishes).

• Strengths: Consistent runner with seven top-two finishes in eight career starts. Proven at this distance. Well-drawn in gate 1 for a tactical race.

• Weaknesses: Only one career win; could be vulnerable in the final strides.

• Trends: Solid second when fresh over 6 furlongs; form suggests improvement.

2. You Know (10-1)

• Jockey: Kevin Stott (4% wins, 32% top-three finishes).

• Strengths: Versatile performer with proven durability over longer trips. Course experience adds value.

• Weaknesses: Poor strike rate on soft and heavy tracks; inconsistent performances.

• Trends: Fitness might not be an issue, but recent form isn’t compelling.

3. Lord Of The Sea (12-1)

• Jockey: Kelly Myers (20% wins, 36% top-three finishes).

• Strengths: Handles softer conditions well; excellent closing speed if given a clear run.

• Weaknesses: Limited experience at this level and returning from a break.

• Trends: Fresh-up form suggests potential for a place finish.

4. Elysian Fields (24-1)

• Jockey: Billy Jacobson (6% wins, 26% top-three finishes).

• Strengths: Comes from a new stable with upside potential. Recent trial win indicates readiness.

• Weaknesses: Poor historical performance on similar ground and distance.

• Trends: Trial form suggests improvement, but overall competitiveness is a concern.

5. Miss Martini (9-2)

• Jockey: George Rooke (2% wins, 24% top-three finishes).

• Strengths: Great first-up effort at this track; proven over 7 furlongs and well-positioned in gate 4.

• Weaknesses: Has struggled to win back-to-back starts in the past.

• Trends: First-up run signals readiness; expect a strong showing.

6. Moon Money (15-2)

• Jockey: Matthew Cartwright (18% wins, 32% top-three finishes).

• Strengths: Consistent form this season; reliable at the finish in recent outings.

• Weaknesses: Win record suggests struggles to finish first.

• Trends: Improving each start this prep, placing well against stronger fields.

7. Persiflage (9-1)

• Jockey: Joe Doyle (2% wins, 36% top-three finishes).

• Strengths: Recent win at this class and distance shows readiness.

• Weaknesses: Mixed results in larger fields.

• Trends: Career trajectory suggests potential for another competitive run.

8. Chaource (6-1)

• Jockey: Craig Grylls (20% wins, 40% top-three finishes).

• Strengths: Strong first-up effort indicates fitness; has upside potential second-up.

• Weaknesses: Class rise might prove challenging.

• Trends: Likely to perform well and be competitive.

9. Saxs ‘N’ Silks (12-1)

• Jockey: Blake Shinn (16% wins, 50% top-three finishes).

• Strengths: Recently broke maiden status, suggesting improvement.

• Weaknesses: Wide draw and class rise might limit winning chances.

• Trends: A developing runner with potential for further improvement.

10. Oh No No No (8-1)

• Jockey: Joe Nishizuka (10% wins, 28% top-three finishes).

• Strengths: Versatile and consistent performer; well-suited for soft conditions.

• Weaknesses: Low strike rate for wins; needs a perfect trip.

• Trends: A reliable trifecta and first-four option.

11. Mad Max (15-1)

• Jockey: Michael McNab (18% wins, 52% top-three finishes).

• Strengths: Solid runner-up performances in last two starts.

• Weaknesses: Still a maiden and facing stronger opposition.

• Trends: Form suggests capability for minor placings.

12. Oppenheimer (15-1)

• Jockey: Sam Spratt (12% wins, 28% top-three finishes).

• Strengths: Placed in both recent runs; competitive at this distance.

• Weaknesses: Still a maiden and has yet to win a race.

• Trends: Consistent but faces a challenge to break through.

🏆 Top Contenders

1. #5 Miss Martini (9-2): Proven at the course and primed to improve second-up.

2. #6 Moon Money (15-2): Consistent performer with strong placing potential. (Jockey photo in header)

3. #1 Smokeshow (5-1): Solid first-up run; well-positioned for a bold effort.

🎯 Final Selections

1. Primary Choice: #5 Miss Martini (9-2) – Strong first-up run and well-placed to capitalize second-up.

2. Secondary Choice: #6 Moon Money (15-2) – Racing consistently and a reliable top-three option.

3. Longshot Pick: #9 Saxs ‘N’ Silks (12-1) – Developing runner with potential to surprise.

Good luck at the races! 🍀